CaspianReport is a YouTube channel I came across which has some very intelligent analysis of world politics from outside the North American/Western viewpoint.
As such, I’d like to bring to your attention their analysis of the current political situation in North Korea and how it might evolve:
Here is a humorous description of the background information.
March 30, 2013 at 08:59
Caspian Report is one of my favorite political channels on youtube. Mostly, objective unbiased and driven by fact rather than ideology. I’m happy it has your approval.
I’m excited to watch this video. But here’s my preconceived opinions of the Korea situation.
North Korea has threatened war against South Korea dozens of times. This is nothing new.
It’s clear that the new young leader has something to prove to his party and people.
The U.S. should still stay prepared just in case, but most likely, I’m 95% sure there will be no conflict this year.
It’s a game of push-and-pull. The UN is too stupid to realize Iran is doing this to us. But also NK is doing it too.
March 30, 2013 at 12:21
I saw the video and I agree virtually all of Caspian’s points.
Personally, if there were war against North Korea, I would be opposed to having the United States sending troops on the ground. I believe, that in the event of any North Korean hostility, the United States should send it’s Air Force in on a two week campaign. And essentially bomb all military buildings and military setups in North Korea, avoiding as much civilian harm as possible. And after the two weeks, it is the responsibility of the South Koreans to win the war and rebuild.
Do you agree or disagree?
I honestly don’t know how China and Russia would react, so I am not certain what the best course of action would be.
I just know that I pity the North Korean people – for a ‘political crime’, they can be sent to jail for 3 generations!!!
And, I also know that they are explaining the humanitarian aid they receive to the general populace as ‘offerings’ to the divinity of their leaders…
I posted the video because I think it is worth watching, but I just don’t know enough about all the background intricacies to hold a strong view on what would be the best course of action.
March 30, 2013 at 16:07
China and Russia are non-factors. Neither of them have any interest in North Korea, considering its reputation in the world. Keep in mind that their top interests are to increase the wealth and prosperity of their nation, and funding a war would be counterproductive about that. They don’t care about morality or ideology, as the Cold War is long over.
People say China has a strong alliance with North Korea, but that is one of many myths commonly circulated about China. In 1997, that may have been true. Now, no. The United States makes up a large percentage of the Chinese economy as the country is too poor to import or purchase (they can only export) and the U.S. is their biggest customer. North Korea is a poor, starving, stigmatized nation that whose role in China’s economy is not very big at all.
The consequences for the United States if it were to engage in war would be minimal (just some political rhetoric), as long as the U.S. keeps to the air, uses an overwhelming amount of force and sets a deadline to leave. The consequences for South Korea could be mild or moderate, but they will be present.
You are right about the North Korean propaganda. But if there is a war at any point, think of what happens when South Korea wins. Many of the North Koreans, at least at first, will be very angry since they’ve been brainwashed their whole life into thinking the Kim Jong regime is their savior.
I think it is more complicated than just the economy bit – though I do agree with you there.
Still, China has to support Nort Korea somewhat or loose face. You know they are still somewhat supportive because if they catch North Koreans attempting to defect, they return them to North Korea: countries only do that for a reason. In the least, it shows China is not neutral.
Russia also has an interest in North Korea – not for what North Korea is, but because it is thorn in the side of the US and can thus be a political tool.
Those cannot be dismissed too easily…
March 30, 2013 at 17:56
China and Russia are different than countries like the United States or muslim countries in the middle east.
They will do what’s convenient for political leverage and expedience, but they won’t give an arm or leg for anything that isn’t vitally necessary. The United States, on the other hand, will, and it has.
Yes, China and Russia fear an American hegemony, so they will engage in relations with ideological enemies of the United States to try and keep the hegemony in check. But the question still stands: What is the worst thing that China and Russia could do to the U.S. and South Korea.
April 1, 2013 at 04:44
The important thing about North Korea is that it borders China.
That’s why the Americans would love nothing better than for Kim Jong Un to hand them a credible excuse for going in there.
Once there, they will not leave. They will set up military bases.
This is the last thing China wants to see.
Therefore, the Chinese will take care of Kim themselves before they let him give the Americans the excuse they’re waiting for.
The Russians couldn’t care less about any of this, except to the extent that conflict between China and America can only be good for Russia.
However, it would be a fatal mistake to think that the cold war is over.
April 8, 2013 at 22:31
I agree North Korea is a good strategic buffer zone, one that the United States would like to remove. The United States is a hegemony, to the point where other countries fear it and want to resist it just in case it starts another ideology war, and to the point where the United States will need to cut off any other possible world power from growing to maintain the hegemony.
Keep in mind that China (as well as Russia) realizing that North Korea was financially irresponsible and a waste of any investment (from the 90’s) both helped cause and reinforced the cause of North Korea’s huge decline.
No doubt China will be angry (and I think for the long run, it’s best that we take out North Korea as soon as possible), BUT war will never happen because Kim Jong Un knows the U.N. is filled with bleeding hearted idiots and the real insane people are the diplomats who will supplicate for diplomacy while NK declares domestic victory and tries to consolidates the stability its leadership. China really has no interesting in going to war against the United States, at least not now. The same can be said about North Korea.