What an interesting post by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.!

There is very little my commentary could add to this most interesting post!

Systematic Misrepresentation of the Science of Disasters and Climate Change

It was written in June 2009 – long before the infamous CRU emails were published by a whistle-blower. The tone, the exact wording, the  systematic presentation of evidence of the flaws in the IPCC review process and why it is broken.

I had come across it while following a link from his current post about the IPCC knowingly misrepresenting the whole Himalayan glacier melting…

He describes a pattern that is more disturbing than many observers realize:  instead of re-butting, debunking or answering much of the most serious, scientifically supported criticisms directed at the IPCC reports (all of them), the IPCC simply ignores them. Refuses to acknowledge that the criticism was even made….and, since there is no ‘noise’, nobody reports on it….and nobody ever learns of the criticism.  That’s what we get for drawing our journalists from the among ‘social sciences’ majors!

But, back to the Himalayan glacier story: the IPCC’s ‘consensus of the world’s scientists’ that the ‘Himalayan glaciers would melt by the year 2035’ – and which was blindly accepted and repeated by the media – was based on a journalist’s mis-quotation of a scientist, published in a news paper…not a study, not a scientific paper, not peer-reviewed, not published in a scientific journal….  Just a single mis-quotation of a single scientist, by a single reporter, in a non-scientific publication….

What is worse, Dr. Pielke Jr. points out, the error was reported within the frame of the IPCC review, prior to publication, by scientists who were IPCC reviewers,  but it was not corrected.  It was just ignored.  And, despite this, the IPCC’s lead scientist, Dr. Ragendra Pachauri (reportedly soon to beat out Al Gore to become the world’s first ‘carbon-cap-trading billionaire’), vigorously defended the ‘Himalayan glacier melt’ claim as ‘scientific consensus’ even recently….

Dr. Pielke Jr. correctly points out:  either Dr. Pachauri knew about this mistake, or he did not.  Given the evidence Dr. Pirlke Jr. presents, it is hard to say which is worse…

Update:  fixed a broken link – thanks.

UPDATE:  MORE ON THIS FROM ‘THE REFERENCE FRAME’, AND DR. ROGER PIELKE JR.’S BLOG HERE, HERE the IPCC statement….and from Watts Up With That.the skeptical blogosphere is abuzz…

Why is CRU hiding its data?

Oh my….

The now infamous emails demonstrated that the CRU scientist said they’d rather destroy data than release it under Freedom of Information Act requests, so other scientists could check their work.

Some data was, indeed, ‘accidentally lost’.

Now, ALL their data and articles have been pulled off their site!

All the info on the Briffa tree ring reconstruction – all gone.

All the publications – all gone.

WHY?

What in the world is going on?

HT: NewsBusters, WattsUpWithThat

Copenhagen Treaty vs. Liberty

Whatever we may or may not think (or believe or disbelieve) about the role humans may or may not have played in the warming the Earth has experienced, or the rise in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, we should all learn all we can about the Copenhagen Treaty.

Why?

Because if it is signed, what it says will become the ‘top law’ in the countries that sign it.  (Even if it is not signed – that it got ‘this close’ means that its content is significant – and likely to come up again in another form.)

In a democratic country, passing a new law is a long and arduous process:  there are all kinds of checks and balances in place in order to make sure that the lawmakers (and the people they represent – and who can vote them out if they misbehave) know what the law says and how it will impact society.

Typically, ‘a bill’ (a proposed law) has to pass a number of public readings (transparency – so ‘everyone’, in theory, is aware of what it says), where the different elected representatives are supposed to examine all its aspects in a thorough and objective (ideally) way, point out any of its potential pitfalls or shortcomings, take account of the public debate about it, suggest amendments and all that.  Only after this long process (which OUGHT NOT be shortened, for any reason, not even if Obama says so), if most of the elected representatives think that supporting it is more likely to get them re-elected than not (i.e. the will of ‘the people’) does this ‘bill’ become a ‘law’.

This is really, really important.

Yes, it is annoying and tedious, but important because it is the only mechanism through which the citizens of a democratic can assert their will on what laws govern their land.  (Legally, that is…)

Contrast that with the ‘Copenhagen Treaty’.

It is a whole set of laws, rules and regulations which we are told are necessary to ‘slow down the build up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere’.

Because the atmosphere is shared by all the people on Earth, any rules or regulations to effectively deal with problems with it must be global.  Makes sense, when put that way…

So, the rules and regulations in the Copenhagen Treaty over-rule any laws or constitutions of the countries that sign it.  Because these are now ‘global rules’, and take precedence over ‘national laws’.

A country may not opt out (once in), unless the majority of the signatory countries agree to let them.

So, what exactly ARE these laws, rules and regulation?

Unlike the process for passing laws in democratic countries which I described above, a system where the content of a proposed law is open for examination and subject to public debate and scrutiny, we don’t really know the details of this whole set of powerful rules and regulations!

Yesterday, some leaked bits of it showed that it would permit ‘developed’ nations to emit something like twice the CO2 per person than ‘developing’ nations:  in other words, ‘developing’ nations would have their development arrested!

They would NOT be allowed to develop! To provide medicine to their people!  To build up their civilizations and raise their people’s standard of living!

NOT ALLOWED!

People in the ‘developed nations’ would have to pay huge amounts of money in taxes.  These taxes would then be used to keep ‘developing nations’ in a state of perpetual poverty and dependence on the ‘developed nations’!

In other words, the Copenhagen Treaty would force them to be the new slave-class.

So poor, they will be grateful for the little bit of medicine, they’ll readily agree to be part of a new vaccination or new medication study.

So hungry, they will accept any crop-seed – happy to get it and let the agro-businesses collect decades of data on its safety.

And – as horrible as this proposition is – it is just the tip of the proverbial ice-berg.

The even bigger issue is that the only way all the representatives found out about it was THROUGH A LEAK!!!

And, we do NOT KNOW what ELSE is there, that was not leaked…

In other words, the Copenhagen Treaty is a pig-in-a-poke – a pig-in-a-poke that will have the power to over-ride our Constitution and any rights and freedoms it guarantees us.

Regardless of your views on Global Warming:  is this a good idea?

Do the ends ever justify the means?

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‘Medieval Warm Period’: why do warm-mongers ‘have to get rid of it’?

While reading through the ClimateGate documents, I noticed that the ‘scientists’ paid some serious attention to the ‘Medieval Warm Period’(MWP).

Specifically, it worried them – we’ve known that since 2006, when one of them openly stated “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period”.

They did not like it.

They wanted to get rid of it.

And rid of it they got!

The second IPCC report (1995/6) showed that the Middle Ages were several degrees (about 3) warmer than the global temperatures are today.

The third IPCC report (2001) DID NOT!!!  It replaced the graph with the now infamously debunked ‘hockey stick graph’… and claimed the 1990’s were by far the warmest period ever.

WHY?

At first, I thought that the reason was the obvious thing:  if things were that warm during 800 – 1 000 years ago, then it would be hard to panic people into giving them tons of research money now.

Then, I thought back to Al Gore’s instructive little movie…  What was the most iconographic image in it?

Al Gore’s big shiny graph which showed how temperature and carbon dioxide are linked!  Here was the proof that more CO2 means higher temperatures!!!

And, our CO2 IS going up.  Measurably.

Except that the temperature goes up first, then, about 800 or so years later (this period varies by a few centuries either way, but, roughly, it has about an 800 year lag) the carbon dioxide goes up!

It is hard to see this lag on Mr. Gore’s graph, because the two curves are separated out.  But, if one superimposes them on the same time-line, it is clear to see that the temperature goes up first and the CO2 goes up (about 800 years or so) later…

Not only does the CO2 go up, the graph shows that it can spike up very quickly!  The pattern shows a slow decline, followed by a sharp, ‘sudden’ rise.

WHEN was that Medieal Warm Period?  The one during which the temperatures shot up?

800-1300 C.E.?

Hey, that is somewhere between 700 and 1 200 years ago.

How long is the lag again?

800 years, plus or minus a couple centuries either way…

Doesn’t that mean that – just about NOW – we should be expecting the CO2 levels to spike up?

Way up?

How come we never hear about that?

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‘Scientific neutrality’ scandal: Australian censorship of Dr. Spash

Perhaps everyone has heard about the ‘ClimateGate’ (I so hate that term) scandal.  It has brought home ‘loud and clear’ just how science suffers when ‘scientific neutrality’ is lost.

The newest chapter in this scandal is happening down under:  Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization (CSIRO) scientist, Dr. Clive Spash, has resigned over his boss’s attempts to censor his work!

But – there is a twist to this tale…. a twist which just might shed new light on this whole Climate scandal mess!

Dr. Spash resigned because he claims his boss wanted him to change his findings, which compromises ‘scientific neutrality’.

On the other hand…

Dr. Spash’s boss claims she wanted him to change his findings, in order to preserve ‘scientific neutrality’.

WHAT!?!?!

One wants to publish as is, while the other wants to change it, but both claim the same motive?

How can this be?

Well, that depends entirely on whether one is a scientist first and a bureaucrat later, or vice versa!

Dr. Spash’s study was about the effectiveness of ‘cap-and-trade’ legislation to reduce carbon dioxide emissions:  the very same thing Obama is proposing, the very same thing the Denmark financial fraud is about – and the very same thing that the Copenhagen Treaty (before it was partially derailed) was going to institute a ‘World Government’, taxing every financial transaction in ‘The West’ a 2% (or so) sales tax to fund ‘enforcement’….  This cap-and-trade scheme was (at the time the study was done, this policy was not yet defeated) the policy of the Australian government….

In other words, the paper was about a politically charged subject – and very, very current.

The original conclusions of the study?  I paraphrase:

‘Cap-and-trade’ is not only ineffective in reducing carbon emissions, the scheme can easily be used for financial fraud. (Aside:  remember, he did the study before the Danish scandal, where the ‘cap-and-trade’ scheme is central in a huge financial fraud – 8 arrests already, more are likely to come.)

Dr Megan Clark, Chief Executive and CSIRO Board member (and Dr. Spash’s boss), wanted ‘minor’ changes to be made to the conclusions of the study, prior to publication.  Why?  In her words:

“‘CSIRO staff are actively encouraged to debate publicly the latest science and its implications and to analyse policy options. However under our charter we do not advocate for or against specific government or opposition policies.”

In other words, Dr. Clark’s understanding of  ‘scientific neutrality’ is that any scientific findings which her government agency publishes, must be ‘politically neutral’.   Here is another quote of hers, which I think illustrates what I am getting at:

“However, under our charter, we do not advocate for or against specific government or opposition policies,” she said in a statement. “The CSIRO Charter protects the independence of our science. It also protects CSIRO scientists from being exploited in the political process.”

“My role as chief executive of the CSIRO is to ensure the integrity and independence of our science is maintained. That’s not something I am prepared to compromise on.”

In other words, in Dr. Clark’s understanding, ‘scientific neutrality’ means that scientists can play in their labs all they want – as long as they do not publish any results which might influence the current political debate!

Of course, most actual scientists think that ‘scientific neutrality’ means that they do the science, find whatever answer is most objective, and then publish their results, without caring what any politicians think or plan or whatever!

Yet, Dr. Clark suggests ‘science neutrality’ means that ‘science’ (or scientists) must only publish findings which are ‘politically neutral’!!!

And, this is not the first time Dr. Clark has ‘protected’ ‘her scientists’ from ‘compromising’ their ‘scientific neutrality’ and presenting actual facts they learned through their scientific expertise – regardless of what the politicians thought!  There are allegations that “four CSIRO scientists were not allowed to give evidence to a Senate inquiry into climate change in a CSIRO capacity”.

Of course, the fact that Dr. Clark is Australia’s Prime Minister’s ‘science advisor’ has nothing to do with her ‘protecting’ her employees from publishing or testifying to any scientific findings which might negatively impact her political master’s policy – and her ‘gravy train’!

Please – think about it.  REALLY think about it.

Most of our science today is done in government-funded labs.

The people who head these government institutions may have scientific credentials, but they would not have clawed their way to the top if they were not politically astute and ‘bureaucrat first, scientist second’….

Yet these are the very same people who are in control of our scientists – who control what they may or may not publish, regardless of how true!  Who are not afraid to bully and silence – and feel ‘righteous’ about it afterwards, because in their own warped brains, that is ‘the best thing for everyone’….

The sad thing is:  most of them actually believe it.

And you wonder how we get things like ‘ClimateGate’!

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A letter to Mr. Prentice, Minister of the Environment

Dear Mr. Prentice,

Recently, you have said that, despite the leaked documents from CRU (and, the latest evidence suggests they were not hacked, but leaked by a conscientious whistle-blower), your position remains:

“The science overall is relatively clear on all of this and as a conservationist and as a responsible environmental steward Canada wants to see carbon emissions reduced.”

With the Copenhagen conference coming up, Mr. Minister, I would like to most emphatically point out that the science has never been ‘relatively clear’, at least not clear in support of the claim that anthropogenic carbon dioxide is the driving force behind climate change.

There has clearly been a very lively scientific debate since these ACC claims have first been made.

On the one hand, there is the series of IPCC reports, the latest of which claims the support of 2,500 scientists and policymakers.  If this is a matter of numbers – which is something measurable – then let’s contrast this 2,500 scientists and policymakers versus the 31,486 scientists (including 9,029 with PhDs) who have signed a petition disagreeing with this claim, because in their expert opinions, the scientific evidence does not support the ACC claim.

Just because very many of scientists think something is right, it does not makes it so:  I am simply bringing this to your attention as proof that there has never been a consensus among scientists on the topic of anthropogenic climate change.  With 2,500 saying ‘yes’ and 31,486 saying ‘no’, it is clear that the ‘science’ has not been proven and that the debate has never been ‘settled’.

Please note – this petition predates any of the current scandals (the Dr. Jones CRU team, the Dr. Mann data, the Dr. Wang data, or even the Danish cap-and-trade scandal)

Something else that many people have been very uncomfortable with – for a very long time – is the militant way in which those supporting ACC claims have behaved:  some people have labeled them ‘warm-mongers’, because of their bellicosity!  Dr. Suzuki, for example, a once-respected scientist, has even called for jailing people who have different opinions from his!

That is not how scientists behave.  It is not just ‘the heat of the issue’ or its importance:  this is contrary to the very rules of scientific behaviour.  Perhaps the greatest physicist of the 20th century, Dr. Richard Feynman, explained this very clearly:

If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it.

As you see, Mr. Minister Prentice, we do not have all the facts, the science is not clear – relatively or otherwise.  No conservationist and no responsible environmental steward would make decisions or commitments based on unsettled science and uncertain data!

Please, keep that in mind during the Copenhagen conference:  my children’s future depends on it!

Sincerely yours,

Xanthippa

[well, actually, I used my real-life name….and provided contact info, just in case…]

‘The data is posted’ excuse by IPCC fraudsters

Yesterday, Dr. Phil Jones – perhaps the most influential ‘Climate Alarmist’ scientist who headed up THE centre of ACC research, resigned.  At least, he has stepped down temporarily (original report by AP, corrected with actual facts here), while there is a fraud investigation into his and his team’s  treatment of the very data on which the IPCC reports (and the trillions of dollars in spending by the politicians – and setting up a ‘World Government’) is based.

Not mistakes, not errors – fraud!

And, unless a person is plugged into the blogosphere,  they would be unlikely to hear about it. The mainstream media seems to think this is not worth reporting….

This whole ‘ClimateGate’ (oh, how I hate that term) is being swept under the carpet and whitewashed by those who are guilty, their friends, and journalists who don’t want to reveal (or, in many instances, don’t want to admit to themselves) just how deeply they failed to do their job and check the ‘facts’ they ‘reported’ with an impartial source and how easily they allowed themselves to be manipulated into reporting only one side of the ACC debate.

And, since only one side of the scientific debate was being reported, it was easy to pretend that there is a ‘consensus’ and that the ‘debate is settled’

It does not help that a lot of the things that are at the heart of the scandal are not easily understandable by people who are not used to the ‘scientific method’ or the language used to describe ‘stuff’ when scientists talk amongst themselves.  It seems that every field of human specialization develops its own jargon, as much to prove that the ‘insiders’ are ‘in’ as to elevate themselves (in their own eyes) above ‘the outsiders’.  It’s human nature.

Here, this ‘jargon’ and ‘specific methodology’ makes it very difficult for the ‘outsider’ to understand exactly how rude and contemptuous some of the communication – published in the leaked (and, latest evidence available now suggests it was leaked by a whistle-blower and not illegally hacked by an outsider) emails – truly is.

I am referring to the ‘Accees to Information’ thread – specifically, to the one described by the ‘requestee’ himself, Willis Eschenbach.

OK – I will do my best to explain the depth of disrespect, arrogance and {insert expletive of your choice} attitude the CRU team in East Anglia has demonstrated.

Point #1.

Lots and lots of ‘surface temperature data’ has been collected. That is true.

Point #2

Most of this data is openly published at all kinds of official websites.  That is also true.

Point #3

Some of this data is of poor quality – for all kinds of reasons. Anthony Watts has demonstrated this, through his photographic documentation as well as analysis of the ‘surface stations’, where he showed some of these were placed next to barbecues and heat vents…  The Phil Jones and his team also admit there are problems with some of the stations:  that is why they had only decided to use data from some stations, rejecting others.

Point #4

In order to re-produce the results that Dr. Phil and his team got – an integral part of the scientific peer-review process – Willis Eschenbach needed to know which of the stations were used in Dr. Phil’s CRU studies, and which were excluded.

In an ideal world, the CRU team would release openly not only the list of the stations whose data they actually used, they would also publish their selection criteria and the reasons for it.  (That is, ‘only data from stations that are not located within 100m of artificial heat sources was used’, or ‘stations which have been re-located more than 5 times are excluded’ etc.) After all, scrutinizing the reasoning for including and excluding some data is very important, as it double checking that the ‘mechanics’ of including/excluding was done without errors.

The original FoI request:

In his original FoI request (September 2006), Willis Eschenbach asks the CRU for the actual data which was used in their study, so he can replicate their methodology.

The 1st CRU reply:

Some 6 months or so later, Mr. Eschenbach finally gets a response and is told to check the websites, as all the info is out there- somewhere !

“Your request for information received on 28 September now been considered and I can report that the information requested is available on non-UEA websites as detailed below.

Between them, these two datasets have the data which the UEA Climate Research Unit (CRU) uses to derive the HadCRUT3 analysis.

In accordance with S. 17 of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 this letter acts as a Refusal Notice, and the reasons for exemption are as stated below

Exemption Reason
s. 21, Information accessible to applicant via other means Some information is publicly available on external websites

This is really, really an official ‘PFO’ – yes, the data is somewhere out there, in these here websites.  Go ‘f’ yourself, because we’re not telling you which ones of these sets of data we used, which we threw away, or why!

It’s sort of like asking for the bus schedule and being told to look at the list of all the arrivals and departures at all the different bus stops, but without telling you which bus route goes to which stop…

The second FoI request:

Willis Eschenbach was outraged – and made a second FoI request in which he explained that he needed to know WHICH data was actually used, and why.  He also pointed out that the two sites the response to his first FoI request have different numbers for many stations – and wants to know which ones the Dr. Jones’ team actually used.

The 2nd CRU response:

Interestingly enough, the 2nd response does not claim that the data is ‘all out there’, like the first one does.  No!

The claim NOW is that 98% of the data is on these sites – and, again, ‘we’re not telling you which bits we chose to use and which to toss out, so go boil your head’.  So look.  BUT, 2% of the data we used isn’t there anyway, and it is too secret to tell you what it is.  Go ask the people we got it from!

“In regards the “gridded network” stations, I have been informed that the Climate Research Unit’s (CRU) monthly mean surface temperature dataset has been constructed principally from data available on the two websites identified in my letter of 12 March 2007. Our estimate is that more than 98% of the CRU data are on these sites.

The remaining 2% of data that is not in the websites consists of data CRU has collected from National Met Services (NMSs) in many countries of the world. In gaining access to these NMS data, we have signed agreements with many NMSs not to pass on the raw station data, but the NMSs concerned are happy for us to use the data in our gridding, and these station data are included in our gridded products, which are available from the CRU web site. These NMS-supplied data may only form a very small percentage of the database, but we have to respect their wishes and therefore this information would be exempt from disclosure under FOIA pursuant to s.41. The World Meteorological Organization has a list of all NMSs.

So,which is it?  Both responses can’t possibly be true!

Either the data is on these websites, as per the 1st response, or some of it isn’t, as per the 2nd reply.

Regardless, the main question, the subject of both the FoI requests (for either 100% or 98% of the data) has not been addressed!  There is no list of stations which were actually used.

You’d think they had Dogbert write these responses!

AFTER A FEW MORE TRIES…

… the CRU finally claims they cannot hand over the list of stations, because they lost it.

Actually, they say they deleted it because they needed the space

This really is inconcievable!

How could a prestigious place of scientific research loose the very data on which years of their research is based?

Going back to my ‘bus schedule’ parallel – this would be like saying that they can’t tell you which bus route goes to which stop, because they lost the list of routes!

OK – I am getting all worked up, and this post is getting rather long – my apologies.  It’s just that this just boggles my mind: I just hope I have explained just how revealing this particular exchange of correspondence truly is.